10/4 cnbc - reading

1. Jobs Data to Direct Markets

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39463986

 

The September jobs report trumps most everything else for markets in the week ahead, and it could have a lingering effect.

 

*trump 능가하다 이기다
-play a trump
비장의 수를 쓰다

- You can play a trump at the last minute.
막판에 비장의 수를 쓰면 돼.)

 

 

Friday's jobs report, however, is the big event, and it's more weighty than usual because it could be a critical piece in the Fed's decision making process about further easing.

 

Economists expect to see barely any change in September hiring, with the private sector delivering about 80,000 jobs. They expect total non-farm payrolls to be near zero, when including the loss of temporary government workers.

 

 

"That's really the only one (report) that has the potential to move the needle. It feels like, at this point, we're in the mode where the Fed has told us they're going to do another round of QE (quantitative easing), unless the data chases them off of it, and so far the data is not doing that," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities.

 

 

"The only indicator we get next week that's significant enough to play a role is employment, and I think there's very little chance the employment report will be strong enough to do that," he said.

 

Stanley expects non-farm payrolls to show a net gain of 20,000 jobs, taking into account the loss of government census workers. He sees the private sector adding 100,000 workers.

 

 

2.

Dollar Drops to 6-Month Low vs Euro on Fed Comments

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39449553/

 

The dollar hit a six-month low versus the euro on Friday after a Federal Reserve official said U.S. growth has been generally disappointing, which strengthened the case for more quantitative easing.

 

More action by the Fed to boost growth will likely be warranted unless the outlook improves, William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said on Friday.

 

The dollar did not get a boost from stronger-than-expected U.S. personal income and consumption data as the currency's weak trend is firmly entrenched.

 

The safe-haven dollar was also suffering from a return of risk appetite after the U.S. data and a report showing China manufacturing was better than forecast.

Many analysts expect the Fed to start a new round of bond purchases, or quantitative easing, as soon as its next policy meeting on Nov. 2-3. Such a move would push down yields on U.S. Treasurys and make the dollar less attractive.

"The only chance to keep the dollar supported for the near term is if the numbers start looking better," said Ron Simpson, director of FX research at Action Economics in Tampa, Florida.

 

 

"A lot of the future for the dollar is going to depend on the data.

If the data stays decent, the market will start to price out quantitative easing,"  he added.

 

 

The euro rose as high as $1.3784, its highest since mid-March, according to the EBS trading platform, breaking through resistance around $1.3692, a peak last hit in April. It was last up 1 percent at $1.3776.